Research Survey

BUCK LAKE RANCH LTD. Wayne Fipke Research study JUNE 10/09

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A MARKET STUDY OF AMERICAN ANGUS ASSOCIATION REPORTED SALES TO DETERMINE THE TOP RANKING SIRES BASED ON PROGENY SOLD AND TO ESTABLISH A RATING SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE VALUE OF INDIVIDUAL BULLS.

The American Angus Association publishes on-line the results of auction sales of purebred angus cattle. For each sale it lists the producer, the date and location and total animals or lots sold, total gross sales receipts, average per lot received and the highest or top selling lots. The top sellers are shown with sire information as well as selling price.

The study examined 657 different PUREBRED ANGUS sales reported during the nine month period between September 1, 2008 and May 31, 2009. Only those individual sales results above $5000.00 per lot were included. In many cases no sales were above this threshold and in others many of the sales were above the threshold and not listed with only the top sellers included. During the period the highest lot sold had a price of $370,000.00.

The study focused on the top sellers information. The selling price and name of the SIRE were tabulated. Sales from each sire were accumulated and listed.

A proposed RATING SYSTEM based on published expected progeny differences (EPDs) was devised. The rating system was tested against the actual sales results of the sires to establish it’s veracity and use as a predictor of the value of an individual animal. It was found to be most useful in regard to animals less than 10 years old. Older “reputation” bulls were found to be exempt from conclusions based on the system.

The rating is a number representing the simple addition of the EPD numbers for weaning weight (WW), yearling weight (YW), milk (M), marbling percentage (Marb.), and rib eye area percentage (RE). This TOTAL number includes the EPDs for Production (or gain), Maternal attributes (based on milk production) and Carcass (the quality of the meat and the meat to bone ratio or yield). The top 2 bulls based on sales were found to have the highest correlating rating numbers.

The study results are being used by the author to determine the selection of the A.I. breeding bulls for the expansion of the Buck Lake purebred herd. The objective is maximizing the use of proven money-makers and improving the ratings of progeny retained for breeding TO MAXIMIZE PER ANIMAL VALUE.

It should be noted that the market examined is primarily that of breeder to breeder sales. The highest sales values are weighted towards females for breeding, bulls for semen sales, and purebred herd breeding bulls. Sales to commercial breeders are at the lower end of the sample (ie under $10,000.). It is assumed that the collective wisdom of all the breeders is reflected in the market results.

Rank (RATE) NAME OF SIRE (birthyear)$Total Sales #lots Avg $/lot

1.) (350) GAR PREDESTINED (1999) $3,218,100. 147 $21,892.

2.) (342) S S OBJECTIVE (2000) $1,852,150. 86 $21,537.

3.) (281) S A V NET WORTH 4200 (2004) $1,098,050. 68 $16,148.

4.) (278) C A FUTURE DIRECTION(AMC) (1995) $ 739,000.* 12 $61,583. *Includes pre AMC high sales of $370,000.00 and $110,000.00

5.) (212) S A V 8180 TRAVELER 004 (2000) $ 724,950. 33 $21,968.

6.) (242) RITO 1I2 OF 2536 RITO 616 (2001) $ 634,650. 34 $18,666.

7.) (271) BON VIEW NEW DESIGN 1407 (1997) $ 617,500. 20 $30,875.

8.) (160) N BAR EMULATION EXT (1986) $ 547,500. 26 $21,058.

9.) (251) MYTTY IN FOCUS (2001) $ 520,400. 59 $ 8,820.

10) (294) CONNEALY ONWARD (2002) $ 441,350. 18 $24,590.

11) (249) S A V BISMARCK (2005) $ 388,000. 12 $32,333.

12) (254) GAR RETAIL PRODUCT (1999) $ 349,900. 22 $15,905.

13) (242) B C MARATHON (2002) $ 344,050. 16 $21,503.

14) (158) LEACHMAN SAUGAHATCHEE (1993) $ 333,350. 10 $33,335.

15) (285) GARDENS PRIME STAR (2004) $ 314,500. 14 $22,464.

16) (345) B/R AMBUSH 28 (2002) $ 310,600. 11 $28,236.

17) (249) B C 7022 RAVEN 7965 (2005) $ 295,000. 17 $17,353.

18) (135) DHD TRAVELER 6807 (1986) $ 278,200. 15 $18,547.

19) (228) EXAR LUTTON 1831 (2001) $ 261,100. 10 $26,110.

20) (200) BON VIEW NEW DESIGN 878 (1998) $ 245,000. 8 $30,625.

21) (253) SAF 598 BANDO 5175 (1995) $ 239,750. 8 $29,969.

22) (313) B/R DESTINATION 727-928 (1999) $ 215,100. 5 $43,020.

23) (253) B R NEW DESIGN 323 (1993) $ 209,500. 8 $26,188.

24) (161) FV 20K KING 308M (2002) $ 208,750. 10 $20,875.

25) (258) WOODHILL FORESIGHT (2001) $ 199,750. 12 $16,646.

26) (213) BOYD ON TARGET (2001) $ 197,050. 12 $16,421.

27) (301) EXAR 263C (2005) $ 186,000. 7 $26,571.

28) (128) LEACHMAN RIGHT TIME (1992) $ 182,500. 11 $16,591.

29) (255) STEVENSON MONEYMAKER (2005) $ 180,800. 5 $36,160.

30) (193) O C C EMBLAZON (1995) $ 172,750. 14 $12,339.

31) (248) SUMMITCREST HIGH PRIME OH29 (1998) $ 165,250. 3 $55,083.

32) (292) H A R B PENDLETON (2005) $ 160,250. 14 $11,446.

33) (303) SITZ UPWARD (2005) $ 157,200. 11 $14,291.

34) (295) CONNEALY ALL AROUND (2006) $ 153,250. 12 $12,770.

35) (244) S A V FINAL ANSWER (2000) $ 151,400. 16 $ 9,462.

36-53) BULLS WITH PROGENY EARNINGS $150,000. - $100,000. In descending order.

RITO 6EM3 OF 4L1 EMBLAZON; GAR GRID MAKER; T C TOTAL 410; H A IMAGE MAKER;

SAV MANDAN; B C MATRIX 4132; HSAF BANDO 1961; CONNEALY THUNDER; CRA BEXTOR;

BR NEW DESIGN 036; VERMILLION PAYWEIGHT; G T SHEAR FORCE; DR. J. ANALYST;

WULFFS EXT 6106; KCF BENNETT PERFORMER; T C GRID IRON; B R MIDLAND

BULLS UNDER $100,000. PROGENY SALES ARE NOT LISTED.

Incidental notes: TRENDS ARE USUALLY NOTABLE IN YEAR TO YEAR COMPARISONS BUT SOME OBSERVATIONS MIGHT BE INFERRED BASED ON THE PRESENT DATA. THE FIRST IS THAT THE GENETIC DISEASES CENTRED ON “ GAR PRECISION 1680” ARE NEGATIVELY AFFECTING ANY PROGENY FROM HIS PEDIGREE SUCH AS “C A FUTURE DIRECTION”. A TREND TO OUTCROSSING SUCH AS “FV 20K KING 308M” AND RETURNING TO OLDER PROVEN SIRES MAY BE UNDER WAY. OLDER BREED LEGENDS WITH CLEAN BLOODLINES NOTED FOR PRODUCING GOOD DAUGHTERS ARE PROMINENT IN THE LIST. THESE INCLUDE: BON VIEW NEW DESIGN 1407, N BAR EMULATION EXT, LEACHMAN SAUGAHATCHEE, DHD TRAVELER 6807, BON VIEW NEW DESIGN 878, BR NEW DESIGN 323, LEACHMAN RIGHT TIME, OCC EMBLAZON AND SUMMITCREST HIGH PRIME OH29.

CARCASS EPDS, WHICH BOOST THE SIRE RATING NUMBERS, ARE EVIDENTLY INCREASING IN THE UPCOMING YOUNGER SIRES. THE THREE DOMINANT SIRES ON THE LIST ARE HIGH IN THEIR COMBINED MARBLING AND RIB EYE EPDS. THESE TRAITS ARE VALUED. IT IS COMMON KNOWLEDGE THAT DURING THE 1990S THE EMPHASIS WAS ON GROWTH, WW AND YW, WHILE IN THE 2000S THE TREND IS TOWARDS CARCASS GENETICS. IN THE RATINGS, NUMBERS OF OVER 240 GENERALLY REFLECT HIGH CARCASS. YOUNGER SIRES WITH TOP CARCASS INCLUDE: CONNEALY ONWARD, GARDENS PRIME STAR, B/R AMBUSH 28, EXAR 263C, SITZ UPWARD AND CONNEALY ALL AROUND.